![]() ![]() Nearly all of the studies that assessed risk perceptions via self administered questionnaires found unrealistic optimism. Many studies do find unrealistic optimism in such comparative risk judgments (that is, on average, smokers claim that their own risk is lower than the risk of their smoking peers) but a few do not. A mean shifted significantly in the “below average” direction would indicate unrealistic optimism. If these risk comparisons were unbiased, the mean of the responses would be “average”. 11 To demonstrate unrealistic optimism about smoking, a representative sample of smokers would be asked about their relative risk of illness on a scale that ranges from “much below the average smoker” to “much above the average smoker”. 10 There is a large literature demonstrating the prevalence of this “unrealistic optimism” and examining the attributes of hazards that make it larger or smaller. 8, 9 Thus, judging accuracy solely from a lay person’s numerical risk estimates is highly questionable.Īnother way of assessing biases in smoking risk perceptions derives from the finding that even when people acknowledge risks for others, they nearly always claim that their own risk is less. Research indicates that many of these estimates should be interpreted as “don’t know” responses rather than as actual risk judgments. 6 Furthermore, when people are asked to estimate smoking risks on a numerical probability scale, such as the number of smokers out of 100 who will develop lung cancer, 7 a suspicious spike in the distribution of answers often appears at 50% (or 50 out of 100). In fact, we know that numerical estimates of smoking risks by lay people can be highly unstable, so that small variations in the ways these estimates are elicited can dramatically change the answers given. Most lay people have difficulty understanding risk statistics 3– 5 and almost never make decisions in everyday life that involve the use of numerical probabilities. 2 This difference could arise because smokers underestimate the risks or because non-smokers overestimate the risks.Ĭomparing smokers’ numerical risk estimates with objective statistics may seem like a better way to assess the accuracy of their risk perceptions. Many other studies reveal that smokers judge smoking to be less dangerous than do non-smokers. ![]() For example, Ayanian and Cleary 1 found that many smokers, even heavy smokers, did not acknowledge that their risks of cancer and heart disease were above average. Numerous studies have examined smokers’ risk perceptions, but only a limited number provide clear evidence that smokers underestimate their own risks. The familiar idea that people begin to smoke cigarettes or continue smoking because they fail to appreciate the risks has received considerable attention. #Are age 21 and under unrealistic optimism fullSmoking cannot be interpreted as a choice made in the presence of full information about the potential harm. Substantial proportions of smokers and former smokers agree with several myths, more than half agreeing that exercise undoes most smoking effects.Ĭonclusion: Smokers underestimate their risk of lung cancer both relative to other smokers and to non-smokers and demonstrate other misunderstandings of smoking risks. Furthermore, their perceived risk of lung cancer and of cancer in general barely increases with the number of cigarettes smoked per day, and their estimates of their risk of cancer are actually slightly lower than their estimates of their risk of lung cancer. Results: Smokers underestimated their relative risk compared to non-smokers and, contrary to previous interview surveys, believed they have a lower risk of developing lung cancer than the average smoker. For key questions, separate samples of smokers were asked either about their own risk or about the risk of the average smoker. Methodology: A US national telephone survey (n = 6369 1245 current smokers) posed a variety of questions designed to examine beliefs about the risks of smoking. We avoided the measurement problems of past studies and examined responses to a number of new questions to assess different aspects of smokers’ perceptions. Whereas smokers claim that they are less at risk than the average smoker on self administered questionnaires, this unrealistic optimism has not been found in telephone or face-to-face interviews. Objective: Past studies have produced ambiguous or inconsistent results when testing whether smokers actually underestimate their own risks of experiencing tobacco related illness. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |